Sunday, 11 December 2011

Dave Does Game Theory

Pinker on why its a good idea to be stubborn.

All the journos and talking heads especially on the left (pompous Steve Richards is upset on Sky as I write) are all running about like headless chickens. This is irrational! what powers were you giving up? there was no Veto! You are pandering to the extreme "right" blah blah.

Negotiation is an art not a science, you need to judge the game as it flows and change strategy as you go, in fact the best way might not to have a strategy at all.

We all know that France has its glory hole showing to the world. It has been using its banks as a political tool and in doing so has lent money it does not have to people as equally weak as they are. In a few months France goes to the polls and in that time the Eurocraps and the French Elite (if they have one) are going to have to ram through a major loss of political power without the French people noticing and setting the country on fire.

This is a country that has not run a budget surplus since 1976, That will soon be as prudent as the Germans, and even the French themselves, judged themselves before the 2008 crash to be bankrupt. They need cash now and will steal it if they can from where ever they can, they are desperate. They are the real loser in all this,60 years of French foreign policy designed to tie Germany down with silken chords is at an end with them pinned to the wall with the Frau ready to mount them with a black manba strap on.

Dave knows this, and knows that the next stage is to formulate how a institutionalised two speed EU might work, and a notice of intent is stage one of a very long process. Assuming the Euro and the EU survives and in what form.

I fancy despite everything Dave might be a better poker player than everyone thinks.

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