Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Bahrain

Time to stock up on Gold, long life milk, tinned food, bottled water and maybe keep some spare fuel knocking about it you can.

George Bush vowed in no uncertain terms that he would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Obama has not gone that far and has distanced himself from that proposition. The sum total is to push the Saudis out from under the cover and into the open.

9/11 was not just a direct attack on the West, it was part of a proxy war between two different views of Islam, and two competing versions of Islamic Fundamentalism one Shia, one Shi'ite. That has been in progress since 1979 when the Mullahs seized power in Iran, which instigated the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Yes, the Saudis have always kept a close eye on what goes on in Bahrain, and they built the causeway just in case. But the Dynamics have changed. If the Saudis for one minute dont believe that the West will not deal with Iran head on, then it will, the question is when?

Now its easy to say so what, nothing to do with us, but we will be involved if we like it or not, First Oil and the spice must flow, and secondly Middle Eastern wars are often fought out initially with proxies, they will hug, kiss and shake hands in public while their followers attack their enemies friends.

There is another scenario, the Saudis develop a nuke of their own, or quickly acquires them from Pakistan, either way these two Juggernaut's are heading for each others throats, and we will be in the middle of it, like it or not.

I fancy before the year is out and certainly before the next Presidential election, Obama is going to have to show his hand, something he seems at pains to avoid even with a small problem like Libya. He does not convey much confidence thus far with his new politics, anti NeoCon viewpoint and grandstanding, but you still have to belive in something at the end of the day.

Libya is very important, if he sends Tehran a message through his actions that the West will act in its self interest another Iran/Iraq war on a much bigger scale might be avoided, if he does not............

No comments: